The coming UP assembly is the most crucial, especially for Congress and BJP, to decide which party's or coalition would establish its reign in Delhi after 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The two major national parties- Congress and BJP- are marginal forces in the most politically crucial state of UP. That is why both are putting every thing into this election.
The ruling BSP and the Opposition SP are considered virtually as regional parties in UP. Both have strong grip on their respective vote banks. However, the two national political parties- Congress and BJP- have specified vote banks.
The Congress party future prime ministerial candidate and general secretary Rahul Gandhi, MP, has been concentrating seriously from the very beginning to revive it and retrieve its pre-eminent position, which it lost to BJP, SP and BJP for more than two decades ago. The attention of Rahul Gandhi bore fruit when the Congress party won 22 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Amethi and Raebareli have been his family constituencies.
Muslim votes constitute the most in Uttar Pradesh. Upper caste, especially Brahmin, Muslim, Dalit and most backward class have been the traditional voters of Congress Party since Independence. The disenchantment has started rising among them since 89 with the Congress and its traditional vote banks also began deserting it. By 1995 desertion appeared to be complete with the Congress that reflected in 1996 Lok Sabha elections.
From 1990s, Former Prime Minister late PV Narsimha Rao took control of the party and the government, though a veteran Congress leader, able administrator and erudite scholar, failed miserably to stop the ascendancy of saffron brigade that weakened the Congress party immeasurably in terms of organization in almost all states of the nation. He presided over the demise of Congress Party organization.
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar suffered the most and there remained almost nothing in the name of organization. Though Rahul Gandhi on his personal initiatives has infused life in UP Congress, Bihar Congress unit is remained lifeless. The Congress party under the stewardship of Rahul Gandhi in UP has almost formed its alliance with Ajit Singh’s INLD to fight there assembly elections. Ajit Singh has considerable base among Jat voters in western UP. He is on the basis of the personality of his father former late Prime Minister Choudhary Charan Singh as the tallest leader of farmers sure to help Congress in giving a stiff fight to CM Mayawati’s BSP. This reflects the earnestness in Rahul Gandhi to retrieve its lost ground in the coming elections.
Chief Minister Mayawati’s BSP, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP and BJP would alone fight the elections, except some alliances here and there with obscure regional political outfits. Chief Minister Mayawati is not as popular as to retain power smoothly. The deteriorating law and order and corruption also plague her government immensely. In addition to that, the nexus between her ministers and criminals and formers involvement in crime have dented her government’s image. As far as BJP is concerned, there is no taker for its Hindu hard-line view in the changed scenario. It was given opportunity in early nineties but totally failed to come up even to the expectations of its vote banks. Mulayam’s Samajwadi Party is still strong among backwads, Muslims and socialist minded upper caste but the history of its government reflects its encourage to goonda Raj in Uttar Pradesh. So, in the given political scenario, there is no likelihood of single party rule. The competition is only for being No. I and 2. Even if the Congress comes at No.2, it will be its achievement and indicator of the fact that after 2017, it might come to power in UP on its own.