In the fast changing scenario all over the world about popular democratic movement, Pakistan can not keep itself aloof. So, the time has gone when military had their way in affairs of Pakistan. The mindset of Pakistani people appears to be in favour of democracy and they not shown shrill in opposition to the democratically government.
So, to stage a military coup without the support of general Pakistanis in the prevailing situation is a distant possibility. The tension between Pak Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and President Asif Ali Zardari over memo scandal is the manifestation of the ongoing tussle between the civilian and military establishments.
The assertion of democratically elected Government can be seen in the sacking of Defence Secretary, who was considered close to Kayani, by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani over submission of affidavit in the Supreme without taking permission of the Government. It might be possible that the Army brought in Brigadier Sarfaraz Ali as the new commander of a Rawalpindi-based army unit that has traditionally played a vital role in military coups. And this has given credence to rumours that Pakistan is heading towards military coup, though it has been done as routine affairs.
Gilani has described the act of Kayani and ISI Chief Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha as illegal and unconstitutional for pursuing the case over memo scandal in the Supreme Court. Gilani has also asserted, saying the every institution has to run under the democratically elected government. He has also said that democracy is the destiny of Pakistani. This is a good signal.
Army and ISI are miffed at the government over memo submitted to US asking it to rein in the both after the killing of Osama bin Laden. This is the root at the tension brewing between the two institutions.
Though the US says that the present tension between Pak military and civilian government is to be settled by Pakistan itself, it has supported the democratically elected government and at the same time it has maintained that it also enjoys good relation with Pak military. So, there does not seem that military coup is in the offing in Pakistan.
Pak government may not be very popular but the situation has not reached to a stage where military could get open support of the people. Judiciary in Pakistan also does not appear to be as fair as it should be. Its bias can be seen in its promptness in hearing the case against government over memo scandal and corruption cases against President Zardari.
First of all, it is in interest of the people of Pakistan to back their democratically government and if it is found to be corrupt and inefficient, they can throw it out of power in elections due to be held at scheduled time as has been told by prime minister Gilani. Military must be opposed to take over the democratically elected government.
Apart from itself, democratically-elected government is in the interest of peace and development in the region and the world as well. Pakistani military establishment has also been dominated by hardliners and because of that militants get favour from them. The situation there is not the same as it was when former military ruler General Pervez Musharraf had staged coup and threw out Nawaz Sharif government. There was strong discontentment among the people with the government at that time due to rising corruption. Musharraf got support from common Pakistanis. The situation is not the same at present. So, military coup is not easy now in the changed aspiration of the people for democracy in Pakistan. Analysts have projected three scenarios that can emerge from the situation under which Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari steps down and announces early polls, the ruling PPP replaces Gilani as Prime Minister or Kayani spearheads a military takeover.