Saturday, October 14, 2017

Keen contest in Himachal Pradesh assembly elections

The date of Himachal Pradesh assembly elections has been announced by the Election Commission. The difference between the date of commencement of election and declaration of its result is 38 days. It itself appears ocular. It has also surprised the nation that why the date of Gujarat assembly elections was not announced along with the Himachal. It appears that Election Commission which has so far been independent has come under the pressure of NDA govt. at the Centre. Election Commission is a constitutional body. It comprises three Election Commissioners and one among them is the Chief Election Commissioner. CEC AK Jyoti was the Chief Secretary of the Gujarat Govt. before being made CEC. Jyoti being the CEC and Gujarat election date being not announced along with Himachal create an impression among the people that he favours the ruling party at the Centre by giving them two to four days to announce some schemes, policy, and programmes to tempt the Gujaratis towards BJP as PM is to visit the state in the next week. With the announcement of the election, the model code of conduct is automatically enforced and after that Govt. can make no announcement about its promises and policies for the people to influence them. Though it has been the history of assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh that it alternates between Congress and BJP after every five years, this time outcome may be different. There is an anti-incumbency factor against the Congress govt. of Virbhdra Singh in the state. In addition to anti-incumbency, there is also the Disproportionate assets case against CM Virbhadra Singh. ED is already pursuing its investigation against him. In addition to this, CM and the Himachal Pradesh Congress president don't see eye to eye. Congress party is faced with the issue of infighting. Though Virbhadra is still the tallest leader of Himachal and his name has already been announced as Chief Ministerial candidate in the assembly elections by the Congress, his boat doesn’t appear to be sailing through. On the other side, the BJP is poised for victory in the assembly elections. But the irony with the party is also that no one leader emerges as the consensus candidate for the post of Chief Minister. Former Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal is already in the race. Himachal BJP leader and the Union Health Minister JP Nadda is also eyeing the post of Chief Minister of the state. It is also difficult for the BJP to evolve consensus over the issue of leadership for the post of Chief Minister in the state. BJP may not announce its CM candidate as it has been doing in North Indian states normally. It had not announced the name of Chief Minister in Delhi and UP elections. It lost Delhi but it won Uttar Pradesh. So, it appears pretty certain that the election in Himachal Pradesh will be Prime Minister Narendra Modi versus CM Virbhadra Singh. There is still an attraction for Virbhadra in Himachal Pradesh. It appears clear that due to not reaching consensus on the issue of leadership in the state in the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the face of the party in the state. There are several leaders in the BJP in Himachal who are of Chief Ministerial material. Prem Kumar Dhumal and JP Nadda are prominent among them. So, it appears that the BJP leadership has shelved the issue and like UP if it won the election, it would elect its legislative party leader very easily. The chances for BJP in the state look bright if the electoral history of the state is anything to go by. But as Virbhadra is himself old war-scarred Congress leader, it would not be easy for BJP to thrash him. The election in Himachal is going to be keenly contested. It is not easy either for BJP or Congress to win. Let us see what happens. But the upper hand in the election is of BJP in Himachal Pradesh.

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